Abstract

The latest data related to the population of Algeria, which relate to the last two censuses conducted by Algeria and whose data were published, which were the 1998 and 2008 censuses (although there was a census conducted in 2022, the data have not been published to date). When comparing them, we find an increase in the proportion of the elderly during the 10 years separating between The two censuses suggest that Algerian society is heading towards aging in the future. In other words, the country is part of the “group of countries in a transitional phase,” that is, it is at the entrance to the “corridor” of aging, or in other words, it is at the beginning of the crossing of the corridor of old age.

Therefore, in this article, we will try to give a formula for a model for projecting the elderly population according to the demographic data available to us, which enables us to project the number of the population in old age, which allows us to estimate the elderly population and estimate the various needs that concern them. Here, statistical forecasting has accomplished two basic purposes, which are meeting the citizens’ needs for... ...and services through official and unofficial agencies and achieving a balance between the forces of supply and demand.” (Al-Hassan, 2005, p. 201)

So in this study we're going to try to use one of the mathematical models to make population estimates or projections based on a situational study, which is based on demographic data on population censuses (fertility, births, death...This method is called a vehicle method, an economic method that is one of the best used to make population estimates, in order to determine the demographic status of older persons up to 2050 horizons and their health structures, material needs, and other necessities."