Abstract

Land Use Land Cover (LULC) changes are among the most significant human-induced modifications to Earth's surface and immediate environment. In district Swat, rapid urbanization, population growth, deforestation, agricultural expansion, and increased built environment have altered LULC dynamics, leading to a rise in Land Surface Temperature (LST). This study aims to evaluate LULC variations and their impact on LST in the Swat district from 2002 to 2022. The analysis primarily utilizes satellite imagery from the USGS Earth Explorer website, covering the years 2002 (Landsat-5 TM), 2012 (Landsat-7 ETM), and 2022 (Landsat 9 OLI/TIRS). LST was derived using thermal band 6 for Landsat 5 TM and Landsat 7 ETM, and band 10 for Landsat 9 OLI/TIRS. The analysis suggests that agricultural land expanded from 577.6 km² to 1117.8 km² (2002-2022), built-up areas increased from 362.3 km² to 875.1 km² (2002-2022) and vegetation cover decreased from 1322.2 km² to 513.4 km² (2002-2022). Similarly, the snow cover reduced from 1567.2 km² to 953.6 km² (2002-2022) and water bodies shrunk from 405.0 km² to 292.4 km² (2002-2022). On the other hand, the LST analysis reveals that a significant increase of 12.49°C in maximum LST over the 20 years. This rise in LST is primarily attributed to the expansion of built-up areas, including houses, roads, and concrete structures, which tend to absorb more solar radiation. These findings highlight the substantial impact of LULC changes on the local climate in district Swat over the past two decades.