Great-Power Politics in the 21st Century: Sino-US Relations, Power Transition, War, and the Contest for Supremacy in Asia

Abstract

World history is full of the rise and fall of great powers. A common feature is found in the rise and fall of great powers: War. This article explores the role of war in the great powers rise and decline and argues that war has played a decisive role at the time of power transition— from the dominant power to the emerging one—in international politics. Will war play a role in the on-going struggle for supremacy between the US and China as well? Keeping in view the conflicting politico-economic ideologies, clashing visions for ordering the world, and the existence of irreconcilable differences over strategic issues, it is highly unlikely that the US-China contest will defy the logic of history and follow the inevitable pattern towards war. These fundamental differences, when coupled with the absence of an effective conflict and/or crisis management mechanism, little military-to-military communications, their divergent positions on Taiwan, the South China Sea, and the strategic design behind the economic-clad Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) of China, etc., the argument of a peaceful transition of power seems doubtfully optimistic. This article, therefore, argues that there is a strong possibility of a tense, conflict-ridden relationship— having every potential for spiraling into an armed conflict—between the US and the China than peaceful coexistence and a cooperative bond between them, unless and until it is avoided through robust diplomatic efforts by both great powers