Forecasting Major Fruit Production in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan
Keywords:
: Forecast Evaluation Criteria, Diagnostics Measures, AIC, SIC, MAE, MSE, MAPE, ARIMA Modeling, Parameter Estimates, ADF testAbstract
The present study investigates the forecasting for major fruit production in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. The study was based on secondary data covering a period of about 34 years i.e. starting from 1980-81 to 2013-14, whereas, ARIMA modeling has been employed to fit the best time series model for major fruit production i.e. Apple, Citrus, Peach, Pear, Plum. It reveals through the results that for major fruit production, the time series models were found to be most suitable as ARIMA (0, 1, 0), ARIMA (2, 2, 2), ARIMA (0, 1, 3), ARIMA (2, 1, 2), ARIMA (2, 1, 2) respectively having least values of forecast evaluation criteria. Hence it can be recommended that time series models were found suitable for forecasting major fruit production in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.