Estimating the Prevalence of COVID-19 in Pakistan

Abstract

The repeated waves of COVID-19 and their various versions create the panic situation of how long we have to stay with COVIS-19.  Estimating the prevalence of COVID-19 is the urgent need of time to rearrange available options (locally and globally) and control the widespread of the virus. In this scenario, time series models provide a precise picture to understand the prevalence of COVID-19 and engage all stakeholders to participate in this health emergency. The present study discusses the auto-regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model developed to measure the predicted trend of COVID-19 in Pakistan. The prevalence COVID-19 data was collected from January, 1, 2021 to September, 30, 2021 from the National Command and Operation Center (NCOC)website. For better prediction, various ARIMA models are constructed at various parametric values of ARIMA.  The model which has the lowest MAPE values is selected as the best model at ARIMA (1,1,3). Further, this investigation also suggested that the suggested ARIMA modelestimate the COVID-19 prevalence efficiently. The statistical finding also suggests better understanding the pattern, trend, and future values of COVID-19 patients inside Pakistan. Thus, it also facilitated the policy makers of the country and also our region to rearrange the available resources and establish the consensus between all stakeholders to participate significantly for the local and global epidemiological stability.